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Invelos Forums->General: General Home Theater Discussion |
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HD DVD and Blu-ray |
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| Registered: March 13, 2007 | Reputation:  |  Posts: 5,635 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
If a rock is falling from a plane, how much effort does it take to know that it will hit something? 2/3rds of the Earth's surface is water. Most likely, nothing but a splash which no one will ever notice. Yeah, it hits water, but who cares? | | | If it wasn't for bad taste, I wouldn't have no taste at all.
Cliff |
| | Registered: March 16, 2007 | | Posts: 405 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Nope, because it doesn't necessarily take a fortune teller to see it. If a rock is falling from a plane, how much effort does it take to know that it will hit something?
I'm just waiting on Calidian definition of a "clearcut" winner. I really don't understand what the falling rock has to do with this??? Seriously, this format war has barely begun and during its short life, both formats have had their moments of glory. Blu-Ray and Sony are currently basking in the glow of recent victory simply because the PS3 has given it a huge boost. You quoted Blu-Rays margin as growing into the 100,000 range, but The Matrix release will again shrink that number down. Both sides will go back and forth with new title releases and still I doubt we will see more than 5% of all movie sales go to the Hi-Def market. DVD will continue to reign, probably at least another year. When Hi-Def overcomes DVD as the medium of choice and Blu-Ray or HD-DVD moves from the niche market it is now and vaults into the mainstream, and let's call this more than 33% (and I agree that you cannot count the PS3 for the sheer reason that I would venture to say that the majority of users have purchased the PS3 for playing Video Games and have not made it the center of their Home Theater system as of yet) of all US homes (let's just use the US for now) and these Hi-Def movies begin to seriously dent DVDs lead (and honestly DVD seriously began to take off when Blockbuster began stocking them on their shelves), only then will I believe that we will see the eventual "Clear-cut winner". Wow, that was a mouthful, sorry about that. I am the kind of guy who wants the best I can get in my home theater(though clearly I have obvious budget constraints). I look forward to adding a true 1080p HDTV sometime in the upcoming months(my next big upgrade) so I can fully begin to enjoy HDTV. I also look forward to eventually getting True HD Sound and DTS HD. These things excite me but I am a cautious consumer because I see the difficulties that possibly lie ahead. 3-4 years ago DVi was the buzz word but then the studios threw out HDCP and then HDMI. Now we have HDMI 1.3(  ). I worry about how many more versions of HDMI do we have to look forward to. Adding a $1000 + high end AV Reciever each year to keep up with the ever changing standards does not thrill me (or the average consumer for that matter). The world of obsolete hardware within 6 months used to lie solely within the realm of personal computers, and I stopped keeping up with them about 3 years ago. Heck I remember reading last year that many of the so-called 1080p HDTVs on the market weren't truly 1080p, that they used wobulation and other cheats to get a near 1080p picture, how many consumers bought into that bullsheet? Big screen HDTVs and surround sound speakers with big processing A/V receivers are big purchases. Currently my set-up gives me plenty of enjoyment viewing DVDs and as I said eventually I will upgrade to a true 1080p HDTV. When the dust settles with HDMI and Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD and I can truly make an affordable investment into this new Hi-Def format, only then will I finally say we have a clear-cut winner. Personally my money is on Dual-Format players!!! | | | | My Collection!!! |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting VibroCount: Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
If a rock is falling from a plane, how much effort does it take to know that it will hit something?
2/3rds of the Earth's surface is water.
Most likely, nothing but a splash which no one will ever notice.
Yeah, it hits water, but who cares? Water is "something", right? Exactly. After it's gone, no one will ever notice (except the fans). | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 4,596 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Quoting VibroCount:
Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
If a rock is falling from a plane, how much effort does it take to know that it will hit something?
2/3rds of the Earth's surface is water.
Most likely, nothing but a splash which no one will ever notice.
Yeah, it hits water, but who cares?
Water is "something", right?
Exactly. After it's gone, no one will ever notice (except the fans). Blah, blah, blah, blah... | | | | My WebGenDVD online Collection |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Calidain: Quote:
You quoted Blu-Rays margin as growing into the 100,000 range, but The Matrix release will again shrink that number down. That's the same day Pirates 1 and 2 comes out. Quote:
When Hi-Def overcomes DVD as the medium of choice and Blu-Ray or HD-DVD moves from the niche market it is now and vaults into the mainstream, and let's call this more than 33% Personally, I think you are in for a rude awakening to how these things decided. Do you think retailers will allow this format war to go on in this capacity for that long? I believe if the leader holds their lead or expands it from 2:1 to 4:1 by the end of this year, you will see the walls coming down from Universal and retailers. Retailers help to make these decisions. They will start moving the losing format out bit by bit. It is already happening in the US and elsewhere in the world. There are Circuit City's that don't carry HD DVD at all anymore. Best Buy seems to be doing the same in some places. In Australia, the largest home theater retailer won't even put up HD DVD products in their stores. It's already happening. Stock holders won't allow the studios supporting the losing format to keep producing discs for only one side. It usually doesn't make good business sense. Companies are in this for profit and not emotion. I would just like to pose this question. What will convince people to buy a new player for the losing format when 100% studio support is on the other side of the fence? Quote:
...(and I agree that you cannot count the PS3 for the sheer reason that I would venture to say that the majority of users have purchased the PS3 for playing Video Games and have not made it the center of their Home Theater system as of yet) of all US homes (let's just use the US for now) and these Hi-Def movies begin to seriously dent DVDs lead (and honestly DVD seriously began to take off when Blockbuster began stocking them on their shelves), only then will I believe that we will see the eventual "Clear-cut winner". It seems to defy logic to say Blu-ray's lead to due to the PS3 and turn around and say it can't be counted. BTW, I wish the best in acquiring your new home theater system, when the dust settles. You should post pictures when it is set-up. | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Reputation: | | Posts: 5,635 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Quoting VibroCount:
Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
If a rock is falling from a plane, how much effort does it take to know that it will hit something?
2/3rds of the Earth's surface is water.
Most likely, nothing but a splash which no one will ever notice.
Yeah, it hits water, but who cares?
Water is "something", right?
Exactly. After it's gone, no one will ever notice (except the fans). And this all proves that Blu-Ray has already won. I get it! You make no sense at all! I get it! | | | If it wasn't for bad taste, I wouldn't have no taste at all.
Cliff |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting VibroCount: Quote:
And this all proves that Blu-Ray has already won. Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already? | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles |
| | Registered: March 17, 2007 |  Posts: 82 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already? Nope, because he can stumble and break a leg.  | | | | Samsung UE55C6200, Yamaha RX-V2067, Xbox 360, PS3. |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | Nielsen Tracking Report Tells Which HD SellsQuote:
Article
By James Plath
FIRST PUBLISHED Apr 5, 2007
An A.C. Nielsen VideoScan Tracking Report for the week ending March 18, released to the public by Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, reveals some interesting data about HD sales.
Cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units. But those numbers and ones to follow come with a disclaimer. Totals do not include retailers that aren't using VideoScan, among them Wal-Mart. Still, there are some interesting things here.
First, lets talk title count. Universal leads the HD-DVD pack with 62 titles, closely followed by Warner Brothers at 61 titles, with Paramount contributing 16, Genius 7, and HBO 1. On the Blu-ray side, Sony is on top with 40 titles, closely followed by Warner Brothers, who've released 38 Blu-ray titles. Fox has 26 titles, Disney/Buena Vista 25, LionsGate 18, Paramount 16, and MGM 11. Totals? HD-DVD now offers 158 titles, Blu-ray 189.
More of interest. Nielsen VideoScan tracking generated a list of the Top 25 titles sold during the year. Top seller? Jack is back. "The Departed" in Blu-ray. Number two is "Casino Royale" in Blu-ray. Number three, "The Departed" in HD-DVD. Here's the rest of the 25 Top Sellers:
4) "The Prestige" Blu-ray
5) "Crank" Blu-ray
6) "Saw 3" Blu-ray
7) "Superman Returns" Blu-ray
8) "Batman Begins" HD-DVD
9) "Black Hawk Down" Blu-ray
10) "Underworld Evolution" Blu-ray
11) "The Fifth Element" Blu-ray
12) "X-Men: The Last Stand" Blu-ray
13) "Talladega Nights" Blu-ray
14) "The Guardian" Blu-ray
15) "Open Season" Blu-ray
16) "Ice Age: The Meltdown" Blu-ray
17) "Babel" Blu-ray
18) "Flyboys" Blu-ray
19) "House of Flying Daggers" Blu-ray
20) "Mission Impossible" 3-pack Blu-ray
21) "Click" Blu-ray"
22) "The Terminator" Blu-ray
23) "The Covenant" Blu-ray
24) Gridiron Gang" Blu-ray
25) "Kingdom of Heaven" Director's Cut Blu-ray
"Casino Royale" Blu-ray is the top seller in the Action/Adventure category, with a YTD of 28,306 units (a little off the 100,00 shipped mark that was reported earlier). "The Departed" Blu-ray is on top of the Drama category with 38, 993 units sold. "Talladega Nights" is tops for Comedy at 10,346 units sold. "Saw 3" Blu-ray is atop the Horror genre, with 14,441 units sold. I will clarify a misunderstanding that I know will happen from this (the author of this article made the same mistake). The 100,000 sold copies of Casino Royale were sold from Sony Pictures Studios to retailers (not to consumers). That is all movie studios are concerned with, obviously. That was DVD's record until Blu-ray did it in 9 months instead of 11 months for DVD (HD DVD is almost in their 12th month). The number of Casino Royale copies sold to consumers are past 50,000 at this point (the numbers from Videoscan was from the 18th of March). That is not including Wal-mart sales, of course. | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 811 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Quoting VibroCount:
Quote:
And this all proves that Blu-Ray has already won.
Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already? 50 yards to go ????  your attempted analogies make even less sense than your endless, zealotic prosthelizing of the blu-ray way and rote regurgitation of meaningless numbers. |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | Reputation:  | | Posts: 13,203 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Quoting VibroCount:
Quote:
And this all proves that Blu-Ray has already won.
Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already? Slight problem with this analogy. In this analogy there is a predefined goal...the finish line. It is tangible. It is visible. In the format war there is no predefined goal or finish line. | | | No dictator, no invader can hold an imprisoned population by force of arms forever.
There is no greater power in the universe than the need for freedom.
Against this power, governments and tyrants and armies cannot stand.
The Centauri learned this lesson once.
We will teach it to them again.
Though it take a thousand years, we will be free.
- Citizen G'Kar |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting mnemo: Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already?
Nope, because he can stumble and break a leg. Exactly! It's highly unlikely, but it's possible. That's the point I'm trying to get across. And, even with a broken leg the runner might still make it across the finsh line before the others catch up. Or, if someone could sneak a gun in the stadium and get a clean shot, that would most likely stop the runner as well (another highly unlikely scenario, but possible).  | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Reputation: | | Posts: 5,635 |
| | Posted: | | | | Quoting Ascended_Saiyan: Quote:
Question: If there is a race and a runner is leading by a quarter of the track with 50 yards to go, has that runner WON the race already? Nope. Less than 1% of the market is being sold. So a quarter-mile lap has been covered less than 4.4 yards. If your numbers are true, then Blu-Ray has travelled about 3 yards total, and HD DVD about 1 yard. Blu-Ray has 437 yards to go, HD DVD has 439 yards to go. Here: Look at this:  (I use a circle rather than an oval, because it's easier.) If one lap is victory, then imagine the long line at the bottom to be the start/finish line. HD DVD has run the magenta part of the track; Blu-Ray has run the cyan part of the track. There are more than 436 yards to go. HD has taken one stride, Blu-Ray (by your numbers) has taken three. There are many, many, many yards to go. Your numbers are as suspect as the Platinum status of the soundtrack LP for the "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band" film. It shipped multi-platinum, but sold less than 1 million, and they had to give back the platinum awards. Shipping does not equal sales. Nor does it imply any victory at all. | | | If it wasn't for bad taste, I wouldn't have no taste at all.
Cliff |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Posts: 1,127 |
| | Posted: | | | | "Nope" as you put it is right (as I said in my previous post).
Concerning your graph effort...
I thought we were talking about HD DVD vs. Blu-ray...not SD DVD. Plus, is it logical to take a question and try to turn it into data mixed with your own numbers?
Once you change the original question, will the point be the same?
BTW, how does that change the fact that HD DVD only has 2 titles in the top 25 HD disc sales. How does it change the fact that the gap between the two format has grown past 135,000 disc sales and growing everyday? | | | To err is human...
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473 Blu-ray Titles | | | | Last edited: by Ascended_Saiyan |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 |  Posts: 519 |
| | Posted: | | | | I don't believe that either will ever take over from SD DVD.
The average punter with a 32" or smaller screen noticed the improvement that SD DVD provided over VHS but they'll see hardly any improvement between SD DVD and the HD formats.
Both HD formats will continue alongside SD DVD as premium formats for those with much larger screens than than the average TV. | | | | Stuart | | | | Last edited: by Gadgeteer |
| | Registered: March 13, 2007 | | Reputation: | | Posts: 5,635 |
| | Posted: | | | | You're the one who compared sales to a lap. What's fair? 1% market penetration? 5%? 25%? 50%? How many homes with TVs now have DVD playing capacity? How many had VCRs prior to DVD? How many no longer use VCRs at all?
Until HD in disc format become dominant in the majority of homes who watch TV, I say neither have won... unless, one format disappears. Right now, SD DVD defeats both, every day, in huge numbers.
But we're discussing HD formats only, right?
What percent of homes will make HD disc technology have any more impact than Cassettes vs. LPs? When did CD take over the audio market? Only when CDs replaced LPs in mass-market stores.
Neither wins until the other goes away, and the winning format's sales are higher than at least, let's say, 25% of the market.
Your lap analogy, just like your drop a rock from a plane analogy makes no sense. If Blu-Ray sells three times as many discs as HD DVD, it doesn't matter at all. The majority of people will ignore both until there are dual-format players available, or until one format produces an under-$200 player (street price $199 or less) with decent, high-end discs under $20. Until then, the vast majority (at least 90% of the available market) will stay away. If HD DVD announced tomorrow that there was a fully-functional $199.99 player, with all single HD DVD discs retailing for $19.99 each, Blu-Ray would either have to match it within a month, or die within three months. Same goes for Blu-Ray.
$700 players? $30.00 discs? Two incompatible formats?
People are staying away, and will stay away forever until the price drops and one format dominates.
You spin numbers as if you are being paid by Blu-Ray. If you are not, you still turn us all off by your zealotry. You smack of either a paid shill (who is very ineffective and ought to be fired) or a newly-converted cult-member who is attempting, in vain, to convince everyone else your cult is salvation. Your shrillness offends. | | | If it wasn't for bad taste, I wouldn't have no taste at all.
Cliff |
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Invelos Forums->General: General Home Theater Discussion |
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